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January 2017

Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 31 jan 2017

Economists from Deloitte, Richa Gupta and Rishi Shah, explain the emerging risks that India's economy faces - (1) Protectionist Trade Polices: G20s in 2016 took restrictive trade measures. Such policies create uncertainties as they are meant to provide immediate stimulus and therefore tend to be more variable and less consistent. In addition India, large importer of oil, also get affected by OPEC cuts and hardening prices. (2) Global Growth Faltering: Global growth is expected to pick up in current fiscal on a premise of US stability and higher growth, stable China and rebound in some emerging economies. China's policy of expected Yuan devaluation would affect India as it would mean depreciation of the domestic currency to maintain competitiveness. (3) Brexit and its Implications: Uncertainties and possibility of 'Hard Brexit' will impact India due to linkages in financial markets as adverse events would cause some outflow of funds. (4) Effect of Demonetisation: Expected 7.1% growth for FY17 would further get affected due to demonitisation that resulted in consumer's inability and hesitancy to spend. This will lead to short-term vicious cycle of lower expected consumption feeding into lower investment expectation. (5) Disruption on GST: Disruptions would emerge as the numerous small businesses learn to adapt to not only a new taxation system but also to an incremental digital framework for compliance with the new regime. Read on...

The Economic Times: Five risks that may hamper India's economic growth
Authors: Richa Gupta, Rishi Shah

Mohammad Anas Wahaj | 04 jan 2017

Marc Faber, editor and publisher of 'The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report', while speaking on Indian economy, says, 'It does not matter whether India grows at 5% per annum or 7% per annum but if you look at the next 10 years or so, you could easily expect an economy that on an average grows anywhere between 4% and 7% per annum. That is a very high growth rate compared to practically no growth expected from the US or in Europe.' On sectors that would be attractive for investments, he comments, 'In 2017, some commodity related stocks including oil and gas will be reasonably attractive. What I have noticed to be the most attractive sectors are plantation companies, agricultural companies and fertiliser companies. They have significant potential on the upside because agricultural commodity prices have been very weak since 2011. These agricultural commodity prices will pace them out and start to increase. The agricultural sector, fertilisers are relatively attractive.' Read on...

The Economic Times: Expect India to grow between 4%-7% in next 10 years: Marc Faber
Author: Tanvir Gill

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